Monsoon Deluge Western Disturbances, Climate Change' Impact On Excessive Rainfall In North India

National National

Posted by AI on 2025-08-28 18:20:56 | Last Updated by AI on 2025-08-28 22:24:27

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What's behind the excessive rainfall devastating Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi? Experts tell us how climate change is making the monsoon more intense.

Days of relentless downpours have triggered landslides and floods in northern India, killing dozens and displacing millions. But experts say that the monsoon isn't the only culprit behind the excessive rainfall.

According to D.P. Dobhal, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Mumbai, the main reason for the deluge is excessive western disturbances.

These disturbances are synoptic-scale storms that originate in the Mediterranean and bring heavy rain to North India. But unlike previous years, these systems are intensifying as a result of climate change.

Despite depicting a "complex scenario," Dobhal notes that the monsoon "is not necessarily becoming more intense".

Meanwhile, local journalist Vishnu Varma says that the "main factor for floods in J&K and Himachal is rainfall intensity and landslides."

Varma underscores that the "main culprit" for the landslides is the seismic instability of the region and the Himalayan Range.

The seismic activity means that mountainous regions are more prone to landslides, especially during heavy rainfall events.

But the combination of monsoon rains and western disturbances is creating a perfect storm-quite literally. As intense rainfall hits mountainous terrain, it can cause erosion and landslides, leading to blockages and flooding.

Climate central to story

The story of extreme rainfall in northern India cannot be told without addressing climate change. Experts say that climate change amplification via global warming is responsible for the intensification of western disturbances.

These disturbances are not new to this region, but their frequency and intensity have increased significantly. As a result, extreme rainfall events will continue to hit this region more frequently, disproportionately, and violently.

And that's not all. Dobhal explains that events like Qaidam Warm Hole and the weakening of the Indian Ocean Dipole are also amplifying the impact of climate change on the region.

The Qaidam Warm Hole is a large area of warmer-than-normal water in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. Its presence can lead to more extreme weather events in northern India. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole is an index that measures temperature differences in the Indian Ocean.

When the Indian Ocean Dipole is negative (meaning cooler waters in the eastern Indian Ocean), it can lead to more precipitation in India. However, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (warmer waters in the eastern Indian Ocean) can cause droughts in India.

As these climate drivers interact with each other, they can lead to more extreme and unpredictable weather conditions in northern India. With climate change intensifying these events, urgent steps need to be taken to increase resilience and reduce the impacts of these extreme rainfall events.

The story ends with a call to action to address the ongoing disaster and prepare for more extreme weather ahead.

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