Uncertainty Surrounds India’s 2025 Monsoon Amid Climate Variability

Current Affairs National

Posted by newadmin on 2025-03-19 08:49:49 |

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The anticipation of India’s summer monsoon is heightened in 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding global climate patterns, particularly the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. These climate drivers, originating in the Pacific Ocean, significantly impact monsoon rainfall, with El Niño associated with warmer sea temperatures and La Niña with cooler temperatures. Historically, these patterns have influenced India’s monsoon behavior, but recent conditions complicate predictions.

As of early 2025, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean are unusual—warm anomalies in the far eastern Pacific and cold anomalies in the central-western Pacific—leading to mixed signals about the monsoon’s potential. Compounding this uncertainty is the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can either enhance or reduce rainfall. In 2023, despite a strong El Niño, a favorable IOD led to a normal monsoon, showcasing the complexity of these interactions.

Furthermore, changes in mid-latitude temperatures affect the jet stream, influencing the monsoon and pre-monsoon cyclones. This shift adds another layer of unpredictability, making accurate forecasting increasingly difficult. With forecasts ranging from La Niña to a normal year or even a strong El Niño, farmers and government agencies face considerable uncertainty. As climate variability continues to challenge forecasting models, the need for more reliable predictions becomes increasingly urgent.

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